20 January 2011

Poker Tournament scenarios - On the Bubble

Poker tournaments - especially large MTT as the events at the WSOP - are private, enclosed universes when it comes to the right strategy. 

And it always comes back to tricky situations that differ significantly from the typical cash-game scenarios.

Increasing blinds, fixed payout structures, a limited number are chips and the share that you can afford to lose, several factors must be taken into consideration in each hand.



A typical scenario

You sit in a $ 1,500 NLHE event at the WSOP and was set just at a different table.

It must eliminate only a few players until the money ranks are achieved. Approximately 500 players are paid.

Blinds: 10.000/20.000

Stacks:

UTG: 1.254 million

MP: 780,000

CO: 130 500

Hero (Button): 620,000

SB: 430 600

BB: 1.8901 million

Pre-Flop: (Pot = 30,000) Hero is replaced by Q h Q c

A fold, MP increased to 60,000, CO Fold, Hero raises to 180,000, second fold, MP re-raised to 780,000.

Hero?

At this point you have to include more variables in its deliberations to find out what hand could hold MP.

He has increased and is on our Three-bet all-gone. This may mean:

- He holds AA or KK.

- He has JJ or even a lower pocket pair.

- He has AK.

- He believes that you want to steal on the bubble and bluffs.

Each of these options makes sense in this play. Let us have a closer look at in the reverse order.


1) Bluff

On the bubble is much stolen, and MP could also try just that here.

Your Three-bet it could be interpreted as a re-steal and provide all-in, because he assumes that you do not hold any hand that you would risk the tournament.

Many players would fold AA or KK here, even, to take any risk.

So this could be a move whose background is only in it to force you to fold.


2) Ace-King

Looking at the hand history, is AK quite a realistic consideration.

The majority of players want to win the hand with AK already at this point without seeing the flop. It might also be that you have scheduled with AQ, AJ or even a pair of the re-raise.

Therefore, the push a totally real move. Even if you hold QQ, he still has a coin flip.


3) Pocket Jacks

With JJ or a smaller pair he could go all-in, to get you to the fold - have to flip with the ulterior motive for a call is still a coin.

Since he was not risking his entire stack (although a large part), he would also not be retired if he loses the hand.


4) Pocket Aces or Kings

Finally, most players would play aces or kings, just like that.

Of course one could try with this hand also, to set a trap, but if you win the pot at this point, it is not a risk.

If you pay for, he has much better chance than you to win the pot.


What do you want to achieve in this tournament?

As you can see, each of these scenarios is completely realistic. Without additional information, you can not even imagine what you are playing compared to now.

Since this is your first hand on the table but you have no additional information. They play virtually blind.

To make a decision, you need to be clear about what you want to achieve in this tournament. If you make the money or to win?

The chance to double it worth running the risk of failure just before the money?

Correct, the question is: How much money is the buy-in for you? Usually, the first payout level is barely higher than the entry fee.

If you are unable to get the money, the call is probably the right decision.

If you have slaughtered your piggy bank to be here at this tournament, you should seriously consider to fold and then put your tournament life at risk if you can be sure that you get your money back.

In some situations there is just no clear answers, and the only one who can ever give an answer, are themselves

Ideally you would of course have a large enough bankroll to be able to fully play in every tournament to win - and you would not need to convince them to cover your living expenses. Unfortunately, this ideal situation does not apply to you.

In reality, there may well be the right way to save the money somehow. The choice is yours.